A prediction for the 2024/25 Altseason timeline based on evidence and market structures
Using an objective analysis of cyclical market structures, this article delves deeper into how past Bitcoin halving cycles and previous altseason data can help us predict the next altseason.
Bitcoin halving really does have some sort of “magic” when it comes to market structure. We’ve had two major altseasons and they both happened at the same time relative to the halving date.
In the first chart I’ve shared, you will see that in the second Bitcoin having cycle, the halving took place on July 9, 2016, and the altseason kicked off on March 1, 2017 — 235 days later. This first major altseason lasted 310 days, with the index growing by around $470 billion — a 56,425% increase (or 564x).
In the second chart I shared, you will see that in the third Bitcoin cycle, the halving was on May 11, 2020, and the altseason began on January 3, 2021 — 237 days later. This second altseason lasted 309 days, with the index rising by $1.5 trillion — a 650% increase (or 6.5x).
What’s fascinating is the coincidence here: both altseasons from different cycles lasted almost exactly the same amount of time, down to the day! The first altseason lasted 310 days, and the second one was 309.
What does this mean for predicting the new Altseason?
In the third and final chart I’ve shared, if we take the halving date of this current cycle, April 19, 2024, and add 235 days, we land on December 10, 2024, marking the potential start of the next altseason. If we add 310 days (the typical altseason duration from past cycles), we get the end of the Altseason as October 18, 2025!
This means that based on the patterns of previous cycles, we can expect the following timing for the next Altseason:
- The altseason is expected to start on December 10, 2024, around 235 days after the halving (when we might also see a new peak in Bitcoin dominance).
- The altseason should last for 310 days, ending with Bitcoin’s growth peak on October 18, 2025.
Note that these aren’t predictions, but the results of an objective analysis of cyclical market structures. There’s no guarantee that the patterns of past cycles will repeat exactly, so don’t take these dates as set in stone.
Read more about what else you need to know about Altseason by clicking the link below.
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